Golden = 62%+ stated (raised from 60% on 2026-11-12 after the sub-band drag showed up), red = everything under. Paper units are 1 unit at the model's own price. Lab picks are in neither bracket. Threshold what-if back-tests other floors.
Model or book 70%+, book not under 60%. Live board and desktop alerts default to this tier so new browsers see only the strongest signal; Standard and Doubted still log.
"Since floor raise" is the forward test of the 0.62 floor — it reads once picks starting on or after 2026-11-12 grade. "Last N graded" counts the N most recent settled picks and is stable even on a quiet day.
None in play or finished on the board right now.
None in play or finished on the board right now.
Each day's top 2 (double) and top 3 (treble) golden picks by conviction, on paper. Chosen by conviction alone, so no result leaks into the choice; a void pick is never a leg. A parlay wins only if every leg wins and pays the model's own combined price, so it shows whether the stated chances hold up when stacked. Not a bet.
| Parlay | Days | Won-lost | Hit | Stated | Paper units | To play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double (top 2) | 58 | 32-24 | 57.1% | 56.8% | +0.86u | 2 |
| Treble (top 3) | 51 | 25-24 | 51% | 42.1% | +10.49u | 2 |
Do the stated chances hold up? For each sport, one shrink factor on the odds is fitted to every graded pick: under 1 means the model is overconfident (a stated 70% wins less often), 1 means it is right. A fix counts as proven only with 60+ graded picks, the likelihood-ratio test passed (p < 0.05), and the fix, fitted on the earlier 60% of picks, also helping on the later 40% it never saw. Nothing here changes a pick or the golden record: a proven fix is a recommendation for the model.
| Sport | Picks | Graded | Hit | Stated | z | Shrink | A stated 70% is | On later picks | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tennis | golden | 308 | 72.4% | 69.1% | +1.25 | 1.22 | 73.8% | does not help | hint |
| tennis | all | 2033 | 54.2% | 54.6% | -0.32 | 1.14 | 72.4% | does not help | hint |
| soccer | golden | 145 | 81.4% | 67.6% | +3.55 | 1.98 | 84.3% | helps | proven |
| soccer | all | 1694 | 49.9% | 48.3% | +1.32 | 1.40 | 76.6% | helps | proven |
| baseball | golden | 54 | 59.3% | 65.5% | -0.97 | 0.66 | 63.6% | does not help | not shown |
| baseball | all | 339 | 58.7% | 57% | +0.65 | 1.13 | 72.3% | does not help | not shown |
| football | golden | 31 | 74.2% | 76.1% | -0.26 | 0.96 | 69.3% | does not help | not shown |
| football | all | 46 | 65.2% | 69.6% | -0.66 | 0.89 | 68% | does not help | not shown |
| lol | golden | 13 | 69.2% | 75.8% | -0.56 | 0.73 | 65% | does not help | not shown |
| lol | all | 31 | 51.6% | 62.8% | -1.33 | 0.78 | 65.9% | does not help | not shown |
NFL golden picks: stated 76.1%, won 74.2% over 31 graded (z -0.26). Fitted, a stated 75% NFL golden pick behaves like 74.2%. Verdict: not shown: 29 more graded picks before it can be proven; the model keeps its stated chances until then.
Red tennis picks: 1725 graded, won 51% against 52% stated (z -0.83), -32.72u. Each candidate filter is judged on the earlier 60% of red picks (before 2026-10-07) and again on the later 40%; a drag is proven only when the later picks lose clearly too.
| Red tennis picks where… | Earlier | Later | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stated 50–55% | 466-470 · 49.8% vs 50.3% · -9.20u | 234-241 · 49.3% vs 51.1% · -16.81u | not shown |
| Stated 55–60% | 55-44 · 55.6% vs 58.2% · -4.74u | 124-91 · 57.7% vs 58.1% · -1.98u | not shown |
| Men (ATP) | 110-113 · 49.3% vs 51.2% · -9.12u | 106-104 · 50.5% vs 53.5% · -11.79u | not shown |
| Women (WTA) | 411-401 · 50.6% vs 51% · -4.82u | 252-228 · 52.5% vs 53.2% · -7.00u | not shown |
| The market had the other player favoured | — | 12-10 · 54.5% vs 55.3% · -0.30u | not shown |
| The market agreed | — | 33-17 · 66% vs 56.2% · +8.60u | not shown |
The closing price is the bookmaker's last price for the pick's side before the start, with the bookmaker's margin taken out: DraftKings' own close, kept in the finished match's ESPN summary, or where that is missing, the last price the report read from ESPN's boards in the hour before the start. Picks that win more often than their closing price said carried something the market did not know; the verdict needs 30 graded picks and a clear gap (|z| ≥ 1.96). The line moving toward a pick between the bookmaker's opening line (or, where there is none, the first price the report read) and the close is the same signal, seen earlier. Paper units are what one unit on each pick would have returned at the closing price: a measurement, not advice.
The closing price forecast better than our chance on these picks: Brier 0.236 for ours against 0.220 for the close, on 2029 graded picks (lower is better; it scores each chance by how far it missed the result).
| Picks | Graded | W-L | Won | We said | Close said | z | Brier ours / close | Said more than the close | Line moved to / from | Paper at the close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden | 227 | 171-56 | 75.3% | 68.3% | 70.8% | +1.56 | 0.188 / 0.175 | 40.1% | 60.8% / 27.3% | +1.29u | no difference shown |
| All | 2029 | 1048-981 | 51.7% | 50.3% | 50.5% | +1.10 | 0.236 / 0.220 | 48.3% | 49% / 38.5% | -95.02u | no difference shown |
| soccer | 1648 | 821-827 | 49.8% | 48.4% | 49% | +0.72 | 0.236 / 0.219 | 46.9% | 50.2% / 38.8% | -92.78u | no difference shown |
| baseball | 335 | 197-138 | 58.8% | 57% | 56.4% | +0.91 | 0.241 / 0.234 | 52.2% | 43.3% / 36.4% | -2.16u | no difference shown |
| football | 46 | 30-16 | 65.2% | 69.6% | 61.6% | +0.53 | 0.207 / 0.185 | 71.7% | 50% / 43.5% | -0.08u | no difference shown |
Every close here is the bookmaker's own, from the finished match's summary.
Graded picks grouped by how far our chance sat from the closing price, and by which way the line moved. Each group is judged on the earlier 60% of picks (before 2026-10-15) and again on the later 40%: a group beats or trails the close only when the later picks, 30 or more, clear it the same way (|z| ≥ 1.96). Read "we said" against "won": where they part, the close was the better guide.
| Picks where… | Won | We said | Close said | Graded | Earlier | Later | Since 2026-11-09 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| We said 5+ pts less than the close | 64.9% | 51% | 63.1% | 663 | 236-139 · 62.9% vs 63.4% | 194-94 · 67.4% vs 62.7% | — | not shown |
| Within 5 pts of the close | 52.3% | 50.6% | 50.6% | 757 | 249-243 · 50.6% vs 50.9% | 147-118 · 55.5% vs 49.9% | 2-0 · 100% vs 67.7% | not shown |
| We said 5–10 pts more than the close | 46.2% | 50% | 42.7% | 266 | 70-96 · 42.2% vs 43.4% | 53-47 · 53% vs 41.6% | — | not shown |
| We said 10+ pts more than the close | 28.9% | 48.6% | 31.9% | 343 | 60-124 · 32.6% vs 32.1% | 39-120 · 24.5% vs 31.8% | — | not shown |
| The line moved 2+ pts toward the pick | 59.7% | 51.3% | 56.7% | 720 | 237-184 · 56.3% vs 57% | 193-106 · 64.5% vs 56.3% | 2-0 · 100% vs 67.7% | not shown |
| The line moved 2+ pts away from the pick | 38% | 49% | 42.4% | 500 | 109-180 · 37.7% vs 42.8% | 81-130 · 38.4% vs 41.8% | — | hint (behind) |
| Golden picks the close also rated 60%+ | 80.6% | 68.6% | 73.7% | 191 | 91-24 · 79.1% vs 73% | 63-13 · 82.9% vs 74.8% | 1-0 · 100% vs 72.2% | hint (ahead) |
| Golden picks the close rated under 60% | 47.2% | 67% | 55% | 36 | 8-16 · 33.3% vs 57% | 9-3 · 75% vs 51% | — | not shown |
ESPN publishes no tennis odds, so the report reads Polymarket's price for each tennis pick every 30 minutes (the margin taken out) and keeps the last one before the start. It is a different market from the bookmaker above, so it is kept apart: none of these picks count in the tables above or in the notes on the cards.
| Tennis picks | Graded | Won | We said | Close said | z | Brier ours / close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden | 18 | 72.2% | 70.8% | 74.6% | -0.24 | 0.182 / 0.130 | too few yet |
| All | 31 | 64.5% | 64.2% | 67.7% | -0.41 | 0.202 / 0.163 | no difference shown |
| Golden, the close also 60%+ | 16 | 81.3% | 71.5% | 77.8% | +0.35 | 0.152 / 0.116 | too few yet |
| Golden, the close under 60% | 2 | 0% | 65% | 49% | -1.39 | 0.423 / 0.243 | too few yet |
All golden picks together win under 75%. Two chances are known before a pick starts: the model's, and where ESPN carries one, the bookmaker's for the same side (DraftKings, the margin taken out). They sort the picks into tiers. Prime: a golden pick the model or the bookmaker rates 70%+, and the bookmaker does not rate under 60%. Doubted: a golden pick the bookmaker rates under 60%. Standard: every other golden pick. Market-backed: a pick that is not golden but the bookmaker rates 70%+. With no bookmaker price (tennis, LoL, a game ESPN shows no odds for) the tier rests on the model's chance alone; Polymarket's tennis price is a different market and never moves a tier.
Graded picks in start order: earlier is the first 60% of all graded picks (before 2026-10-12), later the last 40%. z is the later half's distance from 75% (|z| ≥ 1.96 is clear). The bookmaker's chance here is its closing price; a card before the start reads the latest price, so a pick's tier can change until the start.
| Tier | W-L | Won | Earlier | Later | Later z | Since 2026-11-10 | Paper at the close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All golden picks (60%+) | 405-146 | 73.5% | 161-59 · 73.2% | 244-87 · 73.7% | -0.54 | 12-7 · 63.2% | +1.29 (227 priced) | leans below |
| Prime | 209-45 | 82.3% | 86-19 · 81.9% | 123-26 · 82.6% | +2.13 | 7-2 · 77.8% | +2.91 (133 priced) | above 75% (back-test) |
| Standard | 179-82 | 68.6% | 67-24 · 73.6% | 112-58 · 65.9% | -2.75 | 5-5 · 50.0% | +4.96 (58 priced) | below 75% (back-test) |
| Doubted | 17-19 | 47.2% | 8-16 · 33.3% | 9-3 · 75.0% | 0.00 | — | -6.57 (36 priced) | not shown |
| Market-backed (not golden) | 63-12 | 84.0% | 31-7 · 81.6% | 32-5 · 86.5% | +1.61 | — | +2.32 (75 priced) | leans above |
A back-test, not proof. The 70% and 60% lines were chosen after seeing these results, and other lines were tried beside them, so a rule picked this way can fall short on new picks. The "Since 2026-11-10" column is the test: a tier is called proven only when 30 or more picks graded since then clear 75%. Prime borrows from the bookmaker and Market-backed is the bookmaker's call entirely; nothing here shows the model beating the market. Paper units are what one unit on each priced pick would have returned at the closing price: a measurement, not advice.
Prime picks with a bookmaker price, Prime picks that rest on the model's chance alone, and each sport's share. A small or old group proves nothing on its own.
| Part of Prime | W-L | Won | Earlier | Later | Later z | Since 2026-11-10 | Paper at the close | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With a bookmaker price | 111-22 | 83.5% | 58-14 · 80.6% | 53-8 · 86.9% | +2.14 | — | +2.91 (133 priced) | above 75% (back-test) |
| On the model's chance alone (no price) | 98-23 | 81.0% | 28-5 · 84.8% | 70-18 · 79.5% | +0.98 | 7-2 · 77.8% | — | leans above |
| tennis | 91-20 | 82.0% | 21-2 · 91.3% | 70-18 · 79.5% | +0.98 | 7-2 · 77.8% | — | leans above |
| soccer | 86-18 | 82.7% | 44-12 · 78.6% | 42-6 · 87.5% | +2.00 | — | -1.00 (104 priced) | above 75% (back-test) |
| football | 16-3 | 84.2% | 5-1 · 83.3% | 11-2 · 84.6% | +0.80 | — | +1.60 (19 priced) | too few yet |
| lol | 7-3 | 70.0% | 7-3 · 70.0% | — | — | — | — | too few yet |
| baseball | 9-1 | 90.0% | 9-1 · 90.0% | — | — | — | +2.30 (10 priced) | too few yet |
| Sport | Golden | Hit | Units | Red | Hit | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tennis | 223-85 | 72.4% | +14.25u | 879-846 | 51% | -32.72u |
| soccer | 118-8-19 | 81.4% | +29.84u | 727-445-377 | 46.9% | +8.35u |
| baseball | 32-22 | 59.3% | -5.40u | 167-118 | 58.6% | +16.11u |
| football | 23-8 | 74.2% | -0.99u | 7-8 | 46.7% | -2.34u |
| lol | 9-4 | 69.2% | -1.11u | 7-11 | 38.9% | -5.31u |
Leagues with 10+ settled picks, within each sport. Tennis's ATP vs WTA is the one to watch today.
| Sport · League | Golden | Hit | Units | Red | Hit | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tenniswta | 118-48 | 71.1% | +4.96u | 663-629 | 51.3% | -11.82u |
| tennisatp | 105-37 | 73.9% | +9.28u | 216-217 | 49.9% | -20.91u |
| soccermls | 6-2-1 | 66.7% | -0.01u | 76-49-48 | 43.9% | -13.21u |
| soccerchampionship | 4-1-1 | 66.7% | +0.20u | 62-42-34 | 44.9% | -1.71u |
| soccerefl-league-two | — | — | — | 58-27-43 | 45.3% | +12.36u |
| soccerefl-league-one | — | — | — | 52-36-35 | 42.3% | -4.96u |
| soccerserie-a | 8-0 | 100% | +3.96u | 45-21-18 | 53.6% | +8.50u |
| soccerla-liga | 10-0 | 100% | +4.63u | 39-18-24 | 48.1% | -0.94u |
| soccersuper-lig | 8-1 | 88.9% | +3.01u | 39-21-12 | 54.2% | +11.32u |
| soccerepl | 7-0-1 | 87.5% | +2.66u | 28-23-22 | 38.4% | -10.77u |
| soccerprimeira-liga | 18-1-1 | 90% | +5.93u | 26-18-12 | 46.4% | -2.29u |
| soccereredivisie | 6-1-1 | 75% | +0.95u | 25-20-22 | 37.3% | -15.48u |
| soccerbundesliga | 9-1-4 | 64.3% | -0.53u | 31-18-11 | 51.7% | +4.27u |
| soccerligue-1 | 6-0-1 | 85.7% | +2.02u | 34-19-12 | 52.3% | +7.41u |
| soccerligue-2 | — | — | — | 29-28-15 | 40.3% | -5.43u |
| soccereuropa-league | — | — | — | 28-32-12 | 38.9% | -15.42u |
| soccerchampions-league | 6-0 | 100% | +3.14u | 42-17-7 | 63.6% | +19.74u |
| soccernwsl | 5-1-1 | 71.4% | +0.31u | 41-14-9 | 64.1% | +20.90u |
| soccerwsl | 9-0-6 | 60% | -1.82u | 28-12-8 | 58.3% | +5.64u |
| soccerscottish-premiership | 1-0 | 100% | +0.49u | 25-16-14 | 45.5% | -1.40u |
| soccersaudi-pro-league | 15-0-2 | 88.2% | +4.89u | 11-8-10 | 37.9% | -5.29u |
| socceraleague-men | — | — | — | 8-6-9 | 34.8% | -4.90u |
| lolLPL | 3-2 | 60% | -1.11u | 3-5 | 37.5% | -2.45u |
| Day | Golden | Hit | Units | Red | Hit | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 11/11 | 6-4 | 60% | -1.59u | 3-3 | 50% | -0.75u |
| Tue 11/10 | 6-3 | 66.7% | -0.80u | 3-3 | 50% | -0.71u |
| Mon 11/9 | 7-2 | 77.8% | +0.88u | 6-3 | 66.7% | +1.68u |
| Sun 11/8 | 16-6 | 72.7% | -0.24u | 29-14-6 | 59.2% | +10.56u |
| Sat 11/7 | 17-2-1 | 85% | +3.58u | 36-21-12 | 52.2% | +4.58u |
| Fri 11/6 | 5-2 | 71.4% | -0.20u | 17-6-3 | 65.4% | +10.23u |
| Thu 11/5 | 9-1 | 90% | +2.31u | 17-13-3 | 51.5% | -1.56u |
| Wed 11/4 | 6-6 | 50% | -3.31u | 20-15-1 | 55.6% | +0.41u |
| Tue 11/3 | 9-6 | 60% | -1.81u | 26-17-4 | 55.3% | +5.33u |
| Mon 11/2 | 6-3 | 66.7% | -0.31u | 17-17-1 | 48.6% | -3.45u |
| Sun 11/1 | 17-5-1 | 73.9% | +0.91u | 43-20-3 | 65.2% | +17.47u |
| Sat 10/31 | 14-4-1 | 73.7% | +1.35u | 56-34-18 | 51.9% | +8.01u |
| Fri 10/30 | 12-3 | 80% | +2.30u | 22-12-3 | 59.5% | +7.12u |
| Thu 10/29 | 14-6 | 70% | +0.54u | 9-8-1 | 50% | -2.11u |
A well-judged band wins about as often as it says (hit close to stated).
| Conviction | Bracket | Record | Hit | Stated | Units | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80%+ | golden | 31-7 | 81.6% | 84.5% | -1.39u | 4 |
| 70–80% | golden | 124-21-6 | 82.1% | 73.8% | +16.97u | 4 |
| 62–70% | golden | 250-99-13 | 69.1% | 65.3% | +21.00u | 11 |
| 50–62% | red | 1313-1070-93 | 53% | 52.9% | +3.80u | 35 |
| 40–50% | red | 380-263-215 | 44.3% | 44.8% | -8.35u | 30 |
| under 40% | red | 94-95-69 | 36.4% | 38% | -11.37u | 10 |
5-point bins expose a drag the 10-point bands could hide; the 60–65% band is why the live floor was raised to 62% on 2026-11-12.
| Golden band | Record | Hit | Stated | Units | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80%+ | 31-7 | 81.6% | 84.5% | -1.39u | 4 |
| 75–80% | 43-7-1 | 84.3% | 77.3% | +4.58u | 2 |
| 70–75% | 81-14-5 | 81% | 72.1% | +12.39u | 2 |
| 65–70% | 135-40-7 | 74.2% | 67.1% | +19.37u | 7 |
| 62–65% | 115-59-6 | 63.9% | 63.4% | +1.63u | 4 |
Live floor is 62% and settled 551 back-tested picks at 73.5%, still under the 75% bar. Raising the floor from 60% to 62% on 2026-11-12 took back-tested golden from 71.3% on 701 picks to 73.5% on 551 (+2.2 pts realized; roughly 21% fewer picks published). Rows below back-test higher floors.
| Floor | Record | Hit | vs live | Units | Settled | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% (old) | 500-174-27 | 71.3% | -2.2 pts | +42.42u | 701 | 22 |
| 62% (live) | 405-127-19 | 73.5% | +36.58u | 551 | 19 | |
| 65% | 290-68-13 | 78.2% | +4.7 pts | +34.95u | 371 | 15 |
| 70% | 155-28-6 | 82% | +8.5 pts | +15.58u | 189 | 8 |
| 75% | 74-14-1 | 83.1% | +9.6 pts | +3.19u | 89 | 6 |
The pipeline is settling every ~5 minutes. These numbers skip the one-off catch-up batch from 2026-10-31 so they reflect how settles land today.
| Sport | n | p50 | p95 | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| soccer | 17 | 3 min | 1030 min | 1030 min |
| Sport | n | p50 | p95 | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| soccer | 12 | 3 min | 1030 min | 1030 min |
| Sport | n | p50 | p95 | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| soccer | 29 | 6 min | 1577 min | 1581 min |
Updated 2026-11-12 09:53 UTC.