Golden Picks

Historical learner

What the models learned from finished matches. Each learning run is kept (append-only), so the history shows whether learning helps instead of only the latest setting.

184learning runs kept
412matches captured
5804plays captured
1239scoring plays

Latest learning run per sport

SportLive settingHeld-out acc.BrierCandidateCand. acc.ResultTest nRun
baseballK 854.6%0.249K 855.6%promoted147011-12 08:32 UTC
footballK 6457.1%0.232K 6460.3%promoted12611-12 05:14 UTC
lolK 4056.2%0.241K 4856.6%kept55811-12 06:59 UTC
soccerhomeAdv 60, drawDamp 0.550.6%0.601homeAdv 45, drawDamp 0.350%kept171511-12 08:29 UTC
tennisK 3260.4%0.231K 2460.1%kept306411-12 02:29 UTC
baseball: held-out accuracy per learning run55.6%55.1%54.6%11-03 23:1411-07 17:5911-12 08:32live modelbest candidate
baseball: held-out accuracy per learning run

live model best candidate

football: held-out accuracy per learning run60.3%58%55.7%11-03 21:4411-07 14:2911-12 05:14live modelbest candidate
football: held-out accuracy per learning run

live model best candidate

lol: held-out accuracy per learning run56.6%56.4%56.2%11-03 23:2911-07 18:2911-12 06:59live modelbest candidate
lol: held-out accuracy per learning run

live model best candidate

soccer: held-out accuracy per learning run50.6%49.8%48.9%11-03 22:1411-07 19:4411-12 08:29live modelbest candidate
soccer: held-out accuracy per learning run

live model best candidate

tennis: held-out accuracy per learning run60.7%60.2%59.7%11-03 21:4411-07 10:4411-12 02:29live modelbest candidate
tennis: held-out accuracy per learning run

live model best candidate

Live ledgers: stated conviction vs what happened

SportGradedStatedHitHit − stated
baseball33957%58.7%1.8%
football4669.6%65.2%-4.4%
lol3162.8%51.6%-11.1%
soccer169448.3%49.9%1.6%
tennis203354.6%54.2%-0.4%

Golden picks calibration

BandSettledStatedHit
60%–70%12964.1%62.8%
70%–80%6673.8%83.3%
80%–100%2183.8%81%

Learner capture · latest

CapturedSportFinalPickPlays
11-12 01:18 UTCtennis(6) Marina Bassols Ribera (ESP) bt Maria Lourdes Carle (ARG) 7-5 6-2WIN2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennis(5) Laura Samson (CZE) bt Sofia Costoulas (BEL) 6-2 6-2WIN2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisHolger Rune (DEN) bt Miomir Kecmanovic (SER) 2-6 6-1 6-4WIN3
11-12 01:18 UTCtennis(3) Bianca Andreescu (CAN) bt Laura Pigossi (BRA) 6-1 7-5WIN2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisElizabeth Mandlik (USA) bt (8) Lucia Bronzetti (ITA) 7-6 (7-5) 6-3LOSS2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisAndrea Lazaro Garcia (ESP) bt Jazmin Ortenzi (ARG) 2-6 6-4 6-4WIN3
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisPolona Hercog (SLO) bt Carole Monnet (FRA) 6-3 6-0LOSS2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisAlice Tubello (FRA) bt (1) Tatjana Maria (GER) 7-5 6-4LOSS2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisAleksandr Shevchenko (KAZ) bt (2) Casper Ruud (NOR) 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-3LOSS3
11-12 01:18 UTCtennis(4) Alejandro Tabilo (CHI) bt Lorenzo Sonego (ITA) 7-6 (7-2) 6-7 (7-9) 7-5WIN3
11-12 01:18 UTCtennisIrene Burillo (ESP) bt (4) Julia Grabher (AUT) 7-5 7-6 (7-4)LOSS2
11-12 01:18 UTCtennis(7) Ugo Humbert (FRA) bt Borna Gojo (CRO) 6-2 6-4WIN2