FBS lab: ESPN scoreboards for 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (4,351 finals). Every upcoming game's forecast is locked before kickoff beside the DraftKings line ESPN shows (read-only, never an order) and graded after the final. Not a ledger pick: the golden record, managers and history are unchanged. Written 2026-11-12 08:23 UTC.
Locked when first seen, never changed. A spread or total lean needs our number 3+ points from the market's. Gold rows: 60%+ forecasts. "Market says" is the moneyline chance for our pick, the bookmaker's margin removed.
| Kickoff (UTC) | Game | Our pick | Market says | Our margin | Line | Our total | O/U | Spread lean | Total lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-13 01:00 | Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls | USF 56.8% | 40% | USF by 2.8 | MEM -3.5 | 56.0 | 50.5 | USF ATS | Over |
| 11-13 02:00 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at UL Monroe Warhawks | UL 79.6% 60%+ | 76.6% | UL by 13.5 | UL -10.5 | 50.3 | 49.5 | UL ATS | — |
| 11-14 00:00 | Florida State Seminoles at Pittsburgh Panthers | PITT 66.2% 60%+ | 60.4% | PITT by 6.8 | PITT -3.5 | 57.4 | 53.5 | PITT ATS | Over |
| 11-14 02:00 | Illinois Fighting Illini at #8 UCLA Bruins | UCLA 71% 60%+ | 76.6% | UCLA by 9.0 | UCLA -10 | 44.7 | 47.5 | ILL ATS | — |
| 11-14 03:15 | #17 Houston Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes | HOU 74% 60%+ | 76% | HOU by 10.5 | HOU -9.5 | 52.7 | 51.5 | — | Over |
| 11-14 05:00 | #18 Missouri Tigers at #2 Georgia Bulldogs FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start | UGA 78.2% 60%+ | 84.7% | UGA by 12.7 | UGA -15.5 | 45.4 | 47.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | #3 Utah Utes at #22 Arizona Wildcats | UTAH 53.3% | 55.1% | UTAH by 1.3 | UTAH -2.5 | 56.0 | 54.5 | — | Over |
| 11-14 05:00 | #24 Florida Gators at #6 Kentucky Wildcats NIGHT: 6 - 8pm ET start | UK 59.8% | 60.9% | UK by 4.1 | UK -3.5 | 56.3 | 52.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | #7 Texas Longhorns at #14 LSU Tigers FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start | LSU 61.7% 60%+ | 62.2% | LSU by 4.9 | LSU -4 | 47.3 | 46.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | Baylor Bears at #9 BYU Cougars | BYU 65.7% 60%+ | 71.8% | BYU by 6.6 | BYU -7.5 | 50.0 | 48.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | #10 Ole Miss Rebels at Oklahoma Sooners AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start | MISS 67.6% 60%+ | 50.4% | MISS by 7.5 | OU -1.5 | 51.9 | 49.5 | MISS ATS | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | #13 Tennessee Volunteers at Texas A&M Aggies FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start | TA&M 51.5% | 44.9% | TA&M by 0.6 | TENN -2.5 | 48.0 | 43.5 | TA&M ATS | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | #15 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys | TTU 65.4% 60%+ | 39.6% | TTU by 6.5 | OKST -3.5 | 64.3 | 72.5 | TTU ATS | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | Purdue Boilermakers at #19 Iowa Hawkeyes | IOWA 91.8% 60%+ | 86.3% | IOWA by 22.8 | IOWA -17.5 | 50.7 | 47.5 | IOWA ATS | Over |
| 11-14 05:00 | Arizona State Sun Devils at UCF Knights | UCF 53.6% | 59.3% | UCF by 1.5 | UCF -3 | 54.8 | 49.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones | ISU 61% 60%+ | 58.3% | ISU by 4.6 | ISU -3 | 60.7 | 59.5 | ISU ATS | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers | KU 51.7% | 43.7% | KU by 0.7 | WVU -3 | 64.8 | 67.5 | KU ATS | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs | TCU 62% 60%+ | 76.6% | TCU by 5.0 | TCU -10.5 | 43.6 | 45.5 | KSU ATS | — |
| 11-14 05:00 | Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels | LOU 58.3% | 60.4% | LOU by 3.4 | LOU -3.5 | 55.8 | 60.5 | — | Under |
| 11-14 05:00 | Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Tech Hokies | VT 86.4% 60%+ | 84% | VT by 18.0 | VT -14.5 | 54.8 | 58.5 | — | Under |
| 11-14 17:00 | Duke Blue Devils at #1 Miami Hurricanes | MIA 82.4% 60%+ | 81.7% | MIA by 15.2 | MIA -13.5 | 61.9 | 54.5 | — | Over |
| 11-14 17:00 | Northwestern Wildcats at #12 Ohio State Buckeyes | OSU 84.9% 60%+ | 81.2% | OSU by 16.9 | OSU -14 | 47.5 | 44.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 17:00 | #16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at SMU Mustangs | WAKE 57.6% | 48.9% | WAKE by 3.1 | SMU -1.5 | 57.7 | 60.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 17:00 | Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start | AUB 50.8% | 56.3% | AUB by 0.3 | AUB -2.5 | 52.7 | 50.5 | MSST ATS | — |
| 11-14 17:00 | Syracuse Orange at NC State Wolfpack | NCSU 67.5% 60%+ | 44.9% | NCSU by 7.4 | SYR -2.5 | 58.9 | 53.5 | NCSU ATS | — |
| 11-14 17:00 | Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins | WIS 66.4% 60%+ | 74.4% | WIS by 6.9 | WIS -8.5 | 41.9 | 42.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 17:00 | James Madison Dukes at UConn Huskies | JMU 68.2% 60%+ | 63.1% | JMU by 7.7 | JMU -4 | 66.0 | 57.5 | JMU ATS | Over |
| 11-14 17:30 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers | CLEM 77.6% 60%+ | 81.2% | CLEM by 12.4 | CLEM -13.5 | 49.7 | 47.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 17:30 | Nebraska Cornhuskers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | NEB 69.3% 60%+ | 83.7% | NEB by 8.2 | NEB -15.5 | 55.4 | 51.5 | RUTG ATS | — |
| 11-14 17:45 | #5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start | ALA 77.6% 60%+ | 86.8% | ALA by 12.4 | ALA -17.5 | 55.9 | 50.5 | VAN ATS | — |
| 11-14 18:00 | East Carolina Pirates at Charlotte 49ers | ECU 79.5% 60%+ | 78.7% | ECU by 13.5 | ECU -11.5 | 52.5 | 45.5 | — | Over |
| 11-14 18:00 | UAB Blazers at Temple Owls | TEM 61.7% 60%+ | 55.1% | TEM by 4.9 | TEM -2.5 | 50.3 | 48.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 18:00 | Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | CCU 52.4% | 51.7% | CCU by 1.0 | CCU -1.5 | 53.6 | 51.5 | — | Over |
| 11-14 19:00 | Tulane Green Wave at Rice Owls | TULN 67.5% 60%+ | 44.9% | TULN by 7.4 | RICE -2.5 | 48.2 | 47.5 | TULN ATS | — |
| 11-14 19:00 | Kennesaw State Owls at Sam Houston Bearkats | KENN 60.2% 60%+ | 71.4% | KENN by 4.2 | KENN -7.5 | 44.6 | 46.5 | SHSU ATS | — |
| 11-14 20:00 | New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears | MOST 57% | 53.2% | MOST by 2.9 | MOST -1.5 | 52.4 | 48.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 20:00 | Florida International Panthers at Delaware Blue Hens | DEL 62.3% 60%+ | 64.5% | DEL by 5.1 | DEL -4.5 | 54.5 | 53.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | #20 USC Trojans at #4 Indiana Hoosiers | IU 80.8% 60%+ | 76% | IU by 14.2 | IU -10 | 51.0 | 50.5 | IU ATS | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | Boston College Eagles at #11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | ND 96.9% 60%+ | 94.9% | ND by 30.5 | ND -29.5 | 53.7 | 52.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | Michigan Wolverines at #23 Oregon Ducks | ORE 71.7% 60%+ | 78.2% | ORE by 9.4 | ORE -10.5 | 44.3 | 38.5 | ORE ATS | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | California Golden Bears at Virginia Cavaliers | UVA 78.6% 60%+ | 77.2% | UVA by 13.0 | UVA -10 | 47.6 | 46.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | Florida Atlantic Owls at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | TLSA 51.7% | 65.7% | TLSA by 0.7 | TLSA -5.5 | 73.1 | 74.5 | FAU ATS | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | Nevada Wolf Pack at Northern Illinois Huskies | NEV 62.5% 60%+ | 70% | NEV by 5.2 | NEV -7 | 47.5 | 47.5 | NIU ATS | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | Georgia Southern Eagles at Georgia State Panthers | GASO 51.2% | 66.4% | GASO by 0.5 | GASO -6 | 54.3 | 56.5 | GAST ATS | — |
| 11-14 20:30 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | WKU 50.2% | 29% | WKU by 0.1 | JXST -7.5 | 47.0 | 54.5 | WKU ATS | Under |
| 11-14 20:30 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Liberty Flames | LIB 92.9% 60%+ | 90.8% | LIB by 24.0 | LIB -21 | 55.0 | 53.5 | LIB ATS | — |
| 11-14 21:00 | Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats | TXST 62% 60%+ | 75.7% | TXST by 5.0 | TXST -9.5 | 61.9 | 59.5 | — | Over |
| 11-14 21:15 | Washington Huskies at Michigan State Spartans | WASH 65.5% 60%+ | 60.4% | WASH by 6.5 | WASH -3.5 | 46.7 | 42.5 | WASH ATS | — |
| 11-14 22:00 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | LT 84.2% 60%+ | 86.8% | LT by 16.4 | LT -17.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | — | — |
| 11-14 23:00 | Oregon State Beavers at #25 Boise State Broncos | BOIS 72.6% 60%+ | 82.2% | BOIS by 9.8 | BOIS -15.5 | 64.2 | 65.5 | BOIS ATS | — |
| 11-14 23:00 | App State Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd | MRSH 55.3% | 47.8% | MRSH by 2.2 | APP -1.5 | 51.0 | 54.5 | MRSH ATS | — |
| 11-15 00:00 | Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions | PSU 71.3% 60%+ | 74.8% | PSU by 9.2 | PSU -9.5 | 44.2 | 42.5 | — | — |
| 11-15 00:00 | San José State Spartans at Air Force Falcons | AFA 76.3% 60%+ | 79.1% | AFA by 11.7 | AF -12.5 | 48.5 | 47.5 | — | — |
| 11-15 00:00 | Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars | USA 57.7% | 58.3% | USA by 3.2 | USA -3 | 56.0 | 55.5 | — | — |
| 11-15 00:30 | UNLV Rebels at New Mexico Lobos | UNM 76.9% 60%+ | 82.2% | UNM by 12.0 | UNM -14 | 49.8 | 46.5 | — | — |
| 11-15 00:45 | #21 South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start | SC 67.4% 60%+ | 71.4% | SC by 7.4 | SC -7 | 55.4 | 51.5 | — | Over |
| 11-15 02:00 | North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners | UNT 53.2% | 53.2% | UNT by 1.3 | UNT -2.5 | 80.6 | 76.5 | — | Over |
| 11-15 02:30 | Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs | SDSU 50.4% | 43.7% | SDSU by 0.2 | USU -2.5 | 47.7 | 42.5 | — | Over |
| 11-15 03:00 | Wyoming Cowboys at UTEP Miners | WYO 72.4% 60%+ | 73.4% | WYO by 9.7 | WYO -8.5 | 43.3 | 39.5 | — | — |
| 11-15 03:30 | Colorado State Rams at Washington State Cougars | WSU 76.9% 60%+ | 75.1% | WSU by 12.0 | WSU -9.5 | 61.1 | 66.5 | WSU ATS | — |
| 11-15 04:00 | North Dakota State Bison at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | HAW 57% | 31.9% | HAW by 2.9 | NDSU -6.5 | 42.8 | 38.5 | HAW ATS | — |
| 11-18 00:00 | Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats | OHIO 86.8% 60%+ | — | OHIO by 18.3 | — | 53.7 | — | — | — |
| 11-18 00:00 | Eastern Michigan Eagles at Western Michigan Broncos | WMU 85.4% 60%+ | — | WMU by 17.3 | — | 45.6 | — | — | — |
| 11-18 00:00 | Miami (OH) RedHawks at Kent State Golden Flashes | M-OH 70.5% 60%+ | — | M-OH by 8.8 | — | 49.6 | — | — | — |
| 11-19 00:00 | Akron Zips at Massachusetts Minutemen | MASS 63.1% 60%+ | — | MASS by 5.5 | — | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| 11-19 00:30 | Central Michigan Chippewas at Buffalo Bulls | BUFF 58.6% | — | BUFF by 3.6 | — | 48.0 | — | — | — |
| 11-20 00:30 | Rice Owls at Temple Owls | TEM 73.1% 60%+ | — | TEM by 10.1 | — | 54.4 | — | — | — |
62 graded: 38-24 (61.3%), Brier 0.2072. Against the market on the same 61 games: our Brier 0.2106, the market's 0.1930 (lower is better). Margin miss 13.4 pts against the spread's 12.2; total miss 14.1 against the O/U's 13.0. Spread leans 9-18, total leans 10-16. 60%+ forecasts 30-10 (-1.69u at the stamped moneyline).
| Kickoff | Game | Pick | Result | Final | Spread lean | Total lean | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-12 00:30 | Sacramento State Hornets at Central Michigan Chippewas | CMU 86% | WON | SAC 7 - 28 CMU | — | — | +0.13u |
| 11-12 00:30 | Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals | BUFF 59.7% | WON | BUFF 28 - 7 BALL | — | lost | +0.70u |
| 11-11 05:00 | Massachusetts Minutemen at Toledo Rockets | TOL 89.5% | WON | MASS 0 - 24 TOL | won | — | +0.17u |
| 11-11 01:00 | Ohio Bobcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks | OHIO 51.1% | LOST | OHIO 17 - 34 M-OH | — | — | -1.00u |
| 11-11 00:00 | Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons | BGSU 74.2% | WON | KENT 28 - 33 BGSU | lost | — | +0.49u |
| 11-11 00:00 | Western Michigan Broncos at Akron Zips | WMU 78.7% | WON | WMU 42 - 14 AKR | — | — | +0.17u |
| 11-08 03:30 | Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Rebels | UNLV 73.8% | LOST | WYO 41 - 35 UNLV | lost | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-08 03:30 | Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers | ORST 54.7% | LOST | TXST 42 - 21 ORST | won | — | -1.00u |
| 11-08 02:30 | Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at UTEP Miners | HAW 78.5% | WON | HAW 17 - 14 UTEP | lost | — | +0.29u |
| 11-08 02:30 | Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies | FRES 55.5% | LOST | FRES 10 - 17 USU | — | — | -1.00u |
| 11-08 02:30 | West Virginia Mountaineers at #15 Texas Tech Red Raiders | TTU 87.1% | WON | WVU 48 - 53 TTU | — | — | +0.13u |
| 11-08 01:00 | Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies | LIB 78.8% | WON | LIB 30 - 14 NMSU | won | — | +0.13u |
| 11-08 00:45 | Oklahoma Sooners at #24 Florida Gators | FLA 60% | LOST | OU 23 - 7 FLA | — | — | -1.00u |
| 11-08 00:30 | Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights | ARMY 70.8% | LOST | AFA 24 - 21 ARMY | lost | won | -1.00u |
| 11-08 00:30 | Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines | MICH 81.2% | LOST | MSU 15 - 6 MICH | — | — | -1.00u |
| 11-08 00:30 | Louisville Cardinals at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | LOU 72.3% | WON | LOU 44 - 17 GT | lost | — | +0.15u |
| 11-08 00:30 | Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils | ASU 76.2% | WON | COLO 10 - 20 ASU | won | lost | +0.62u |
| 11-08 00:30 | #19 Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats | IOWA 54.2% | WON | IOWA 24 - 10 NU | — | — | +0.77u |
| 11-08 00:30 | #2 Georgia Bulldogs at #10 Ole Miss Rebels | MISS 53.2% | LOST | UGA 42 - 7 MISS | lost | — | -1.00u |
| 11-08 00:30 | #1 Miami Hurricanes at #11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | ND 60.5% | WON | MIA 24 - 31 ND | — | won | +0.36u |
| 11-08 00:00 | Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | JXST 87% | WON | SHSU 14 - 47 JXST | — | — | +0.13u |
| 11-07 23:15 | #6 Kentucky Wildcats at #13 Tennessee Volunteers | TENN 73.2% | WON | UK 6 - 34 TENN | won | lost | +0.49u |
| 11-07 23:00 | #25 Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams | BOIS 85.1% | WON | BOIS 64 - 38 CSU | — | won | +0.11u |
| 11-07 22:00 | South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | UL 70.5% | WON | USA 26 - 28 UL | — | lost | +0.32u |
| 11-07 21:15 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers | WIS 77.8% | WON | RUTG 10 - 31 WIS | lost | — | +0.10u |
| 11-07 21:15 | Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs | MSST 59.6% | LOST | VAN 25 - 23 MSST | — | lost | -1.00u |
| 11-07 21:00 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Troy Trojans | LT 58.2% | WON | LT 41 - 17 TROY | — | lost | +0.49u |
| 11-07 21:00 | Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers | FIU 68.6% | WON | MOST 20 - 23 FIU | lost | — | +0.49u |
| 11-07 21:00 | Northern Illinois Huskies at San José State Spartans | SJSU 76.2% | WON | NIU 19 - 30 SJSU | — | won | +0.24u |
| 11-07 21:00 | Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green | UNT 92.2% | WON | RICE 23 - 52 UNT | won | won | +0.13u |
| 11-07 20:45 | UCF Knights at Kansas Jayhawks | KU 68.6% | LOST | UCF 33 - 32 KU | lost | won | -1.00u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | WKU 56.4% | LOST | WKU 42 - 51 MTSU | — | — | -1.00u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Marshall Thundering Herd at Georgia Southern Eagles | GASO 71.1% | WON | MRSH 13 - 49 GASO | — | lost | +0.25u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Temple Owls at Navy Midshipmen | NAVY 73.6% | WON | TEM 35 - 42 NAVY | — | lost | +0.37u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Charlotte 49ers at UAB Blazers | UAB 80.6% | WON | CLT 12 - 23 UAB | won | lost | +0.29u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies | WASH 57.4% | LOST | PSU 28 - 25 WASH | — | — | -1.00u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Cincinnati Bearcats at #17 Houston Cougars | HOU 75.1% | WON | CIN 24 - 31 HOU | — | — | +0.24u |
| 11-07 20:30 | Merrimack Warriors at #16 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | WAKE 99.7% | WON | MRMK 0 - 77 WAKE | — | lost | — |
| 11-07 20:30 | #23 Oregon Ducks at #12 Ohio State Buckeyes | OSU 77.9% | LOST | ORE 41 - 28 OSU | lost | won | -1.00u |
| 11-07 20:30 | #5 Alabama Crimson Tide at #14 LSU Tigers | LSU 58.2% | LOST | ALA 31 - 13 LSU | — | — | -1.00u |
Ranked by net points (offense + defense, the forecast's own strength: points better than an average FBS team a game). Elo: 1500 is an average FBS team. Offense and defense: points above an average team, adjusted for the opponent (defense: points kept off the board). AP: the rank ESPN showed at the team's latest game. Schedule: average rating of the opponents when they were played. One-score: games decided by 8 or fewer. 2nd half: average second-half (and overtime) margin.
| # | Team | Conf. | W-L | AP | Net pts | Elo | Elo last 3 | Pts for | Pts against | Offense | Defense | Schedule | One-score | 2nd half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia Bulldogs | SEC | 8-1 | 2 | +25.7 | 1915 | +28 | 41.1 | 14.0 | +11.3 | +14.4 | 1537 | 1-1 | +7.9 |
| 2 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | FBS Independents | 8-1 | 11 | +23.8 | 1871 | +22 | 39.3 | 14.6 | +12.6 | +11.2 | 1519 | 1-1 | +9.8 |
| 3 | Miami Hurricanes | ACC | 8-1 | 1 | +22.9 | 1860 | -29 | 45.0 | 19.2 | +14.4 | +8.5 | 1498 | 2-1 | +9.8 |
| 4 | Indiana Hoosiers | Big Ten | 8-1 | 4 | +22.5 | 1913 | -22 | 32.4 | 12.4 | +8.1 | +14.4 | 1514 | 4-1 | +8.8 |
| 5 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Big Ten | 6-3 | 12 | +20.9 | 1734 | -128 | 35.7 | 18.3 | +9.2 | +11.6 | 1581 | 1-1 | +4.4 |
| 6 | Alabama Crimson Tide | SEC | 7-2 | 5 | +20.8 | 1827 | +19 | 37.4 | 20.3 | +10.3 | +10.5 | 1618 | 0-1 | +8.6 |
| 7 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | ACC | 8-1 | 16 | +19.9 | 1743 | +47 | 43.3 | 15.9 | +11.9 | +8.0 | 1450 | 2-0 | +11.6 |
| 8 | Utah Utes | Big 12 | 9-0 | 3 | +18.9 | 1874 | +81 | 37.7 | 16.3 | +10.2 | +8.7 | 1475 | 3-0 | +5.7 |
| 9 | Texas Longhorns | SEC | 7-2 | 7 | +18.6 | 1834 | +115 | 31.1 | 17.4 | +7.1 | +11.4 | 1643 | 3-2 | +4.4 |
| 10 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Big Ten | 7-2 | 19 | +17.5 | 1780 | +48 | 27.8 | 12.2 | +4.4 | +13.1 | 1521 | 2-1 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Oregon Ducks | Big Ten | 6-3 | 23 | +17.4 | 1779 | +39 | 34.1 | 22.1 | +9.6 | +7.8 | 1531 | 3-2 | +8.7 |
| 12 | Tennessee Volunteers | SEC | 7-2 | 13 | +16.0 | 1762 | +84 | 32.4 | 15.1 | +6.7 | +9.3 | 1516 | 1-2 | +10.0 |
| 13 | LSU Tigers | SEC | 6-3 | 14 | +15.9 | 1690 | +19 | 37.1 | 17.7 | +6.7 | +9.2 | 1562 | 0-2 | +9.3 |
| 14 | Ole Miss Rebels | SEC | 6-3 | 10 | +15.8 | 1716 | -99 | 33.8 | 26.0 | +10.5 | +5.3 | 1618 | 2-1 | +2.2 |
| 15 | Duke Blue Devils | ACC | 7-2 | — | +15.3 | 1721 | +108 | 33.0 | 13.0 | +7.4 | +8.0 | 1471 | 2-2 | +11.3 |
| 16 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | Big 12 | 8-1 | 15 | +13.2 | 1746 | -39 | 37.6 | 24.1 | +9.0 | +4.1 | 1395 | 3-0 | +8.7 |
| 17 | Louisville Cardinals | ACC | 6-3 | — | +13.0 | 1690 | +60 | 40.8 | 25.9 | +9.3 | +3.7 | 1486 | 1-3 | +11.1 |
| 18 | Arizona Wildcats | Big 12 | 7-2 | 22 | +12.8 | 1706 | -10 | 34.2 | 19.9 | +7.0 | +5.8 | 1473 | 1-1 | +5.3 |
| 19 | James Madison Dukes | Sun Belt | 8-2 | — | +12.8 | 1678 | -105 | 40.6 | 19.3 | +9.4 | +3.4 | 1352 | 2-2 | +6.6 |
| 20 | BYU Cougars | Big 12 | 7-2 | 9 | +12.6 | 1714 | -96 | 31.0 | 19.8 | +4.5 | +8.1 | 1534 | 3-2 | -0.1 |
| 21 | USC Trojans | Big Ten | 7-2 | — | +12.3 | 1721 | +54 | 32.4 | 24.2 | +7.7 | +4.6 | 1544 | 3-0 | -1.0 |
| 22 | Missouri Tigers | SEC | 6-3 | 18 | +11.9 | 1659 | -58 | 30.2 | 20.1 | +3.1 | +8.8 | 1544 | 0-1 | +4.8 |
| 23 | South Carolina Gamecocks | SEC | 6-3 | 21 | +11.8 | 1706 | +137 | 34.7 | 23.4 | +5.7 | +6.1 | 1534 | 2-2 | +4.7 |
| 24 | UCLA Bruins | Big Ten | 9-0 | 8 | +11.4 | 1752 | +53 | 33.6 | 14.1 | +3.2 | +8.3 | 1482 | 1-0 | +12.2 |
| 25 | SMU Mustangs | ACC | 7-2 | — | +11.1 | 1674 | +4 | 37.0 | 22.9 | +7.7 | +3.4 | 1385 | 1-1 | +7.7 |
| # | Team | Conf. | W-L | AP | Net pts | Elo | Elo last 3 | Pts for | Pts against | Offense | Defense | Schedule | One-score | 2nd half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Big Ten | 5-4 | — | +11.1 | 1602 | +57 | 28.9 | 19.3 | +4.1 | +7.0 | 1512 | 1-3 | +0.2 |
| 27 | Texas A&M Aggies | SEC | 4-5 | — | +10.5 | 1528 | -34 | 26.1 | 18.7 | +1.3 | +9.2 | 1502 | 0-1 | +1.7 |
| 28 | Boise State Broncos | Pac-12 | 8-1 | 25 | +10.3 | 1751 | +29 | 39.0 | 25.2 | +8.4 | +1.8 | 1479 | 2-1 | +3.6 |
| 29 | Oklahoma Sooners | SEC | 5-4 | — | +9.9 | 1638 | +28 | 22.1 | 19.2 | -0.3 | +10.2 | 1585 | 3-2 | +5.0 |
| 30 | Baylor Bears | Big 12 | 6-3 | — | +9.8 | 1636 | +95 | 31.9 | 17.0 | +5.2 | +4.6 | 1428 | 0-2 | +6.4 |
| 31 | Houston Cougars | Big 12 | 7-2 | 17 | +9.8 | 1703 | +5 | 35.4 | 21.3 | +4.7 | +5.1 | 1483 | 2-2 | +1.8 |
| 32 | Northwestern Wildcats | Big Ten | 6-3 | — | +9.3 | 1582 | -66 | 31.0 | 19.3 | +2.8 | +6.5 | 1490 | 1-2 | +5.2 |
| 33 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Big Ten | 5-4 | — | +9.1 | 1532 | -109 | 30.2 | 16.6 | +1.7 | +7.4 | 1512 | 0-3 | +3.7 |
| 34 | New Mexico Lobos | Mountain West | 8-1 | — | +9.0 | 1652 | +46 | 34.6 | 10.9 | +2.1 | +6.8 | 1305 | 2-1 | +11.4 |
| 35 | Washington Huskies | Big Ten | 5-4 | — | +8.9 | 1613 | +63 | 26.3 | 21.9 | +2.8 | +6.1 | 1490 | 2-3 | +6.2 |
| 36 | North Texas Mean Green | American | 7-2 | — | +8.4 | 1648 | +61 | 44.7 | 30.9 | +13.3 | -4.8 | 1418 | 2-0 | +7.4 |
| 37 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Big 12 | 6-3 | — | +8.4 | 1589 | +86 | 43.9 | 27.2 | +10.0 | -1.6 | 1455 | 1-2 | +11.1 |
| 38 | Texas State Bobcats | Pac-12 | 5-4 | — | +7.9 | 1614 | +63 | 38.6 | 30.8 | +9.3 | -1.4 | 1489 | 1-3 | +2.7 |
| 39 | TCU Horned Frogs | Big 12 | 4-5 | — | +7.6 | 1550 | -41 | 23.8 | 15.8 | -0.9 | +8.5 | 1466 | 1-5 | +6.4 |
| 40 | Pittsburgh Panthers | ACC | 6-3 | — | +7.5 | 1540 | -43 | 31.9 | 19.8 | +3.7 | +3.8 | 1426 | 2-2 | +5.6 |
| 41 | Wisconsin Badgers | Big Ten | 6-3 | — | +7.5 | 1609 | +45 | 24.4 | 16.3 | -3.6 | +11.0 | 1534 | 1-0 | +6.1 |
| 42 | Memphis Tigers | American | 7-2 | — | +7.3 | 1618 | +47 | 37.6 | 23.6 | +7.0 | +0.3 | 1415 | 2-0 | +11.1 |
| 43 | Michigan Wolverines | Big Ten | 5-4 | — | +7.1 | 1540 | -92 | 19.6 | 16.2 | -2.4 | +9.5 | 1555 | 4-3 | +2.2 |
| 44 | Clemson Tigers | ACC | 6-3 | — | +6.3 | 1613 | +27 | 22.7 | 20.7 | -0.9 | +7.3 | 1471 | 2-1 | +1.4 |
| 45 | Kentucky Wildcats | SEC | 7-2 | 6 | +6.3 | 1643 | +27 | 29.9 | 25.8 | +2.4 | +3.9 | 1550 | 3-0 | +2.0 |
| 46 | Illinois Fighting Illini | Big Ten | 6-3 | — | +6.3 | 1619 | +135 | 28.4 | 23.0 | +1.1 | +5.2 | 1465 | 2-2 | +3.4 |
| 47 | Florida Gators | SEC | 5-4 | 24 | +6.1 | 1487 | -26 | 32.4 | 27.6 | +3.1 | +3.0 | 1547 | 2-0 | +2.0 |
| 48 | Auburn Tigers | SEC | 5-4 | — | +5.8 | 1534 | -50 | 24.3 | 26.3 | +0.7 | +5.1 | 1611 | 4-1 | -2.4 |
| 49 | North Carolina Tar Heels | ACC | 5-4 | — | +5.7 | 1572 | +23 | 27.1 | 22.8 | +0.8 | +4.9 | 1562 | 3-3 | -1.0 |
| 50 | South Florida Bulls | American | 6-3 | — | +5.6 | 1560 | +16 | 25.9 | 15.1 | -0.1 | +5.7 | 1369 | 2-3 | +8.7 |
| 51 | Liberty Flames | Conference USA | 8-1 | — | +5.5 | 1564 | +73 | 33.3 | 13.6 | +1.6 | +3.9 | 1290 | 1-1 | +11.6 |
| 52 | Florida State Seminoles | ACC | 4-5 | — | +5.0 | 1487 | -2 | 30.7 | 28.3 | +4.1 | +0.9 | 1530 | 1-2 | +0.6 |
| 53 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | Sun Belt | 7-2 | — | +4.5 | 1590 | +127 | 33.6 | 20.4 | +1.2 | +3.3 | 1382 | 2-0 | +3.2 |
| 54 | Virginia Tech Hokies | ACC | 6-3 | — | +4.1 | 1540 | +35 | 34.2 | 23.9 | +3.0 | +1.1 | 1472 | 2-2 | -2.4 |
| 55 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | Big Ten | 5-4 | — | +3.9 | 1507 | +4 | 24.7 | 22.0 | -0.8 | +4.7 | 1549 | 3-1 | +0.9 |
| 56 | Kansas Jayhawks | Big 12 | 3-6 | — | +3.8 | 1383 | -16 | 29.4 | 24.8 | +2.4 | +1.5 | 1481 | 1-3 | -0.9 |
| 57 | Fresno State Bulldogs | Pac-12 | 5-4 | — | +3.7 | 1517 | -54 | 26.8 | 20.6 | -0.9 | +4.6 | 1433 | 0-3 | +7.4 |
| 58 | Iowa State Cyclones | Big 12 | 4-5 | — | +3.6 | 1501 | -38 | 29.2 | 28.9 | +3.3 | +0.2 | 1532 | 2-1 | +0.2 |
| 59 | Cincinnati Bearcats | Big 12 | 5-4 | — | +3.5 | 1543 | +38 | 33.0 | 29.4 | +4.1 | -0.6 | 1534 | 2-2 | +7.1 |
| 60 | Arizona State Sun Devils | Big 12 | 5-4 | — | +3.2 | 1534 | +62 | 28.4 | 27.3 | +0.9 | +2.2 | 1487 | 1-1 | -0.2 |
| 61 | Western Michigan Broncos | MAC | 7-3 | — | +2.9 | 1573 | -20 | 27.8 | 18.7 | -1.0 | +3.9 | 1370 | 3-2 | +5.4 |
| 62 | Vanderbilt Commodores | SEC | 4-5 | — | +2.8 | 1483 | -72 | 23.0 | 29.4 | +1.2 | +1.7 | 1503 | 2-1 | -0.7 |
| 63 | Toledo Rockets | MAC | 8-2 | — | +2.7 | 1574 | +60 | 34.3 | 22.0 | +1.0 | +1.7 | 1306 | 3-0 | +4.5 |
| 64 | UTSA Roadrunners | American | 7-2 | — | +2.5 | 1589 | -45 | 33.0 | 29.8 | +5.5 | -3.0 | 1508 | 4-0 | +2.1 |
| 65 | Georgia Southern Eagles | Sun Belt | 5-4 | — | +2.3 | 1552 | +157 | 26.6 | 19.7 | -0.5 | +2.8 | 1413 | 2-2 | +0.7 |
| 66 | Army Black Knights | American | 5-4 | — | +2.1 | 1506 | -92 | 32.2 | 25.3 | +0.3 | +1.8 | 1430 | 3-3 | +3.0 |
| 67 | UCF Knights | Big 12 | 5-4 | — | +1.7 | 1455 | +20 | 30.1 | 26.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 | 1484 | 3-1 | +0.8 |
| 68 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | American | 5-4 | — | +1.6 | 1500 | +198 | 33.1 | 22.8 | +3.1 | -1.4 | 1348 | 1-3 | +5.4 |
| 69 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | SEC | 4-5 | — | +1.6 | 1465 | -90 | 26.2 | 27.8 | +1.6 | -0.0 | 1581 | 2-2 | +0.7 |
| 70 | Virginia Cavaliers | ACC | 4-5 | — | +1.5 | 1449 | -63 | 25.9 | 23.1 | -2.4 | +3.9 | 1466 | 1-1 | +0.2 |
| 71 | West Virginia Mountaineers | Big 12 | 5-4 | — | +1.4 | 1491 | +78 | 37.2 | 34.6 | +7.7 | -6.3 | 1497 | 3-2 | -0.1 |
| 72 | Michigan State Spartans | Big Ten | 3-6 | — | +1.3 | 1461 | +70 | 19.3 | 23.6 | -2.2 | +3.6 | 1589 | 0-2 | -1.3 |
| 73 | Oregon State Beavers | Pac-12 | 5-4 | — | +1.2 | 1422 | -74 | 38.0 | 26.9 | +3.3 | -2.0 | 1476 | 0-0 | +2.7 |
| 74 | Kansas State Wildcats | Big 12 | 4-5 | — | +1.2 | 1394 | -175 | 31.3 | 26.8 | +2.2 | -1.0 | 1445 | 0-2 | +4.4 |
| 75 | East Carolina Pirates | American | 5-4 | — | +0.8 | 1502 | +22 | 23.6 | 23.3 | -1.9 | +2.7 | 1425 | 3-2 | -3.0 |
| 76 | Arkansas Razorbacks | SEC | 3-6 | — | +0.8 | 1423 | +28 | 20.0 | 27.4 | -0.1 | +0.9 | 1544 | 0-2 | -3.3 |
| 77 | NC State Wolfpack | ACC | 4-5 | — | +0.4 | 1467 | -50 | 28.9 | 27.6 | +0.6 | -0.2 | 1505 | 1-2 | -2.6 |
| 78 | Syracuse Orange | ACC | 4-5 | — | +0.1 | 1364 | +63 | 29.3 | 25.4 | +0.2 | -0.2 | 1490 | 3-4 | -2.9 |
| 79 | Navy Midshipmen | American | 3-6 | — | -0.2 | 1441 | -33 | 29.2 | 30.4 | +0.8 | -1.0 | 1412 | 2-4 | +1.1 |
| 80 | Air Force Falcons | Mountain West | 7-2 | — | -0.4 | 1529 | +10 | 28.7 | 21.4 | -0.7 | +0.3 | 1353 | 3-1 | +4.9 |
| 81 | Utah State Aggies | Pac-12 | 4-5 | — | -0.7 | 1462 | +84 | 16.9 | 20.6 | -5.3 | +4.6 | 1487 | 2-2 | +0.3 |
| 82 | UConn Huskies | FBS Independents | 4-5 | — | -0.8 | 1398 | -88 | 32.9 | 26.7 | +2.6 | -3.4 | 1338 | 0-2 | +2.1 |
| 83 | Florida Atlantic Owls | American | 6-3 | — | -0.9 | 1550 | +113 | 40.2 | 35.0 | +7.6 | -8.5 | 1430 | 3-1 | -0.8 |
| 84 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | Sun Belt | 6-3 | — | -1.7 | 1477 | -6 | 29.9 | 21.8 | -2.0 | +0.4 | 1346 | 3-2 | +3.2 |
| 85 | Ohio Bobcats | MAC | 7-3 | — | -2.0 | 1485 | -61 | 28.2 | 22.9 | -2.8 | +0.9 | 1287 | 4-1 | -0.6 |
| 86 | UNLV Rebels | Mountain West | 5-4 | — | -2.4 | 1462 | -111 | 26.1 | 25.7 | +0.2 | -2.6 | 1401 | 3-2 | -1.8 |
| 87 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | Big Ten | 2-7 | — | -2.7 | 1330 | -51 | 25.8 | 32.4 | +1.2 | -4.0 | 1465 | 1-3 | +0.1 |
| 88 | Georgia State Panthers | Sun Belt | 5-4 | — | -2.8 | 1399 | -30 | 34.4 | 26.2 | +1.1 | -3.8 | 1369 | 0-1 | +1.8 |
| 89 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks | Conference USA | 7-2 | — | -2.8 | 1431 | +101 | 29.1 | 19.2 | -2.4 | -0.4 | 1260 | 3-1 | +6.3 |
| 90 | North Dakota State Bison | Mountain West | 7-2 | — | -2.9 | 1402 | +36 | 28.1 | 11.9 | -5.4 | +2.4 | 1330 | 1-2 | +6.9 |
| 91 | Miami (OH) RedHawks | MAC | 6-4 | — | -2.9 | 1474 | +67 | 28.1 | 25.7 | -2.0 | -0.9 | 1372 | 3-3 | -3.3 |
| 92 | Maryland Terrapins | Big Ten | 3-6 | — | -3.2 | 1352 | -9 | 27.7 | 31.3 | -0.7 | -2.5 | 1549 | 1-2 | -2.9 |
| 93 | Boston College Eagles | ACC | 4-5 | — | -3.3 | 1412 | -12 | 21.9 | 27.0 | -3.1 | -0.2 | 1459 | 3-2 | -2.7 |
| 94 | Washington State Cougars | Pac-12 | 1-8 | — | -3.6 | 1302 | -73 | 19.0 | 27.4 | -5.2 | +1.6 | 1491 | 0-2 | -6.2 |
| 95 | Purdue Boilermakers | Big Ten | 3-6 | — | -3.6 | 1359 | -142 | 29.4 | 32.3 | +0.3 | -3.9 | 1499 | 1-2 | -0.6 |
| 96 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | ACC | 2-7 | — | -4.1 | 1315 | -125 | 23.9 | 32.2 | -1.3 | -2.8 | 1470 | 1-2 | -5.3 |
| 97 | Colorado Buffaloes | Big 12 | 3-6 | — | -4.2 | 1335 | -7 | 19.8 | 28.3 | -4.2 | +0.1 | 1526 | 2-1 | -5.4 |
| 98 | Buffalo Bulls | MAC | 7-3 | — | -4.8 | 1512 | +73 | 24.3 | 24.1 | -4.2 | -0.6 | 1340 | 5-1 | +3.8 |
| 99 | Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | Mountain West | 3-6 | — | -5.0 | 1340 | +51 | 20.3 | 23.3 | -5.3 | +0.3 | 1335 | 1-1 | -1.6 |
| 100 | South Alabama Jaguars | Sun Belt | 4-5 | — | -5.1 | 1359 | -111 | 32.4 | 32.2 | +1.3 | -6.4 | 1394 | 2-3 | -3.8 |
| 101 | Old Dominion Monarchs | Sun Belt | 3-7 | — | -5.4 | 1366 | -11 | 16.8 | 25.8 | -7.8 | +2.4 | 1405 | 1-2 | -1.3 |
| 102 | San Diego State Aztecs | Pac-12 | 4-5 | — | -5.5 | 1382 | +15 | 26.4 | 34.3 | -1.8 | -3.7 | 1430 | 3-1 | -1.6 |
| 103 | Wyoming Cowboys | Mountain West | 6-3 | — | -5.5 | 1487 | +157 | 21.9 | 21.7 | -6.8 | +1.2 | 1328 | 3-0 | -0.4 |
| 104 | Central Michigan Chippewas | MAC | 5-5 | — | -5.7 | 1431 | +55 | 20.6 | 22.1 | -6.1 | +0.4 | 1394 | 1-2 | +3.7 |
| 105 | Tulane Green Wave | American | 4-5 | — | -5.7 | 1399 | -187 | 21.1 | 29.2 | -4.3 | -1.4 | 1480 | 3-1 | -2.1 |
| 106 | App State Mountaineers | Sun Belt | 5-4 | — | -5.8 | 1319 | -73 | 26.3 | 24.4 | -4.1 | -1.7 | 1394 | 4-1 | +2.7 |
| 107 | Temple Owls | American | 2-7 | — | -5.8 | 1242 | -111 | 24.9 | 28.3 | -2.8 | -3.1 | 1426 | 1-5 | -2.6 |
| 108 | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Sun Belt | 4-5 | — | -6.1 | 1381 | +30 | 27.4 | 26.3 | -3.9 | -2.2 | 1343 | 2-3 | -0.4 |
| 109 | Troy Trojans | Sun Belt | 4-5 | — | -7.0 | 1322 | -55 | 22.3 | 26.2 | -6.4 | -0.6 | 1355 | 2-1 | -4.4 |
| 110 | UAB Blazers | American | 5-4 | — | -7.4 | 1434 | +60 | 21.8 | 23.8 | -5.6 | -1.7 | 1416 | 2-1 | +2.6 |
| 111 | California Golden Bears | ACC | 3-6 | — | -7.5 | 1337 | -74 | 21.9 | 31.6 | -3.9 | -3.6 | 1476 | 2-1 | -5.8 |
| 112 | Delaware Blue Hens | Conference USA | 4-5 | — | -8.0 | 1320 | +99 | 30.3 | 29.1 | -0.0 | -8.0 | 1342 | 1-2 | +3.2 |
| 113 | Marshall Thundering Herd | Sun Belt | 5-4 | — | -8.2 | 1417 | +42 | 22.3 | 31.9 | -3.7 | -4.5 | 1395 | 4-1 | -4.7 |
| 114 | Stanford Cardinal | ACC | 4-5 | — | -8.3 | 1444 | +12 | 20.3 | 37.3 | -3.7 | -4.7 | 1587 | 2-0 | -8.0 |
| 115 | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | Sun Belt | 3-6 | — | -8.8 | 1285 | -26 | 24.7 | 24.7 | -5.6 | -3.2 | 1326 | 1-4 | -1.7 |
| 116 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | Conference USA | 3-6 | — | -9.3 | 1221 | -99 | 23.6 | 33.3 | -4.6 | -4.7 | 1333 | 0-0 | -4.6 |
| 117 | San José State Spartans | Mountain West | 5-5 | — | -9.4 | 1297 | -53 | 20.9 | 22.0 | -7.7 | -1.6 | 1337 | 2-2 | -0.6 |
| 118 | Nevada Wolf Pack | Mountain West | 3-6 | — | -9.4 | 1303 | +27 | 20.8 | 23.6 | -8.8 | -0.6 | 1373 | 0-2 | +0.4 |
| 119 | Florida International Panthers | Conference USA | 4-5 | — | -9.6 | 1338 | -66 | 19.3 | 20.3 | -8.0 | -1.6 | 1339 | 1-3 | 0.0 |
| 120 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | Sun Belt | 3-6 | — | -10.0 | 1293 | +93 | 26.4 | 33.6 | -2.2 | -7.8 | 1400 | 1-1 | -1.9 |
| 121 | Kennesaw State Owls | Conference USA | 3-6 | — | -10.4 | 1283 | +93 | 25.1 | 27.0 | -5.3 | -5.1 | 1366 | 1-3 | -2.2 |
| 122 | Bowling Green Falcons | MAC | 3-7 | — | -11.4 | 1266 | -1 | 19.3 | 28.9 | -7.9 | -3.6 | 1375 | 2-4 | -4.6 |
| 123 | Eastern Michigan Eagles | MAC | 4-6 | — | -11.8 | 1262 | -127 | 19.9 | 26.6 | -7.8 | -4.1 | 1329 | 1-2 | -2.7 |
| 124 | Rice Owls | American | 1-8 | — | -11.9 | 1212 | -86 | 21.2 | 34.0 | -6.6 | -5.3 | 1498 | 0-3 | -6.8 |
| 125 | New Mexico State Aggies | Conference USA | 3-6 | — | -12.2 | 1213 | -58 | 20.7 | 25.8 | -8.6 | -3.6 | 1391 | 1-0 | -2.6 |
| 126 | Colorado State Rams | Pac-12 | 3-6 | — | -12.5 | 1258 | +11 | 35.8 | 44.8 | +2.0 | -14.5 | 1453 | 1-0 | -0.9 |
| 127 | Missouri State Bears | Conference USA | 3-6 | — | -12.5 | 1157 | -19 | 23.9 | 30.0 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 1331 | 1-2 | -6.0 |
| 128 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | Conference USA | 5-4 | — | -13.6 | 1254 | +1 | 26.9 | 31.0 | -3.6 | -10.0 | 1280 | 3-1 | -3.8 |
| 129 | Massachusetts Minutemen | MAC | 5-5 | — | -14.5 | 1211 | -12 | 24.3 | 22.3 | -9.9 | -4.6 | 1329 | 1-2 | +0.1 |
| 130 | Ball State Cardinals | MAC | 3-7 | — | -16.2 | 1199 | -20 | 21.3 | 34.1 | -7.9 | -8.3 | 1377 | 1-1 | -7.2 |
| 131 | UL Monroe Warhawks | Sun Belt | 2-7 | — | -16.5 | 1186 | +78 | 20.1 | 34.8 | -10.3 | -6.2 | 1347 | 2-2 | -4.0 |
| 132 | Charlotte 49ers | American | 1-8 | — | -16.9 | 1188 | +49 | 19.7 | 38.3 | -8.5 | -8.4 | 1457 | 1-3 | -9.8 |
| 133 | Northern Illinois Huskies | Mountain West | 0-9 | — | -16.9 | 1071 | -77 | 16.6 | 36.8 | -8.3 | -8.6 | 1398 | 0-2 | -7.6 |
| 134 | Kent State Golden Flashes | MAC | 3-7 | — | -16.9 | 1183 | -112 | 15.7 | 30.8 | -9.7 | -7.2 | 1358 | 0-2 | -7.5 |
| 135 | Akron Zips | MAC | 1-9 | — | -17.1 | 1148 | -56 | 18.6 | 33.2 | -8.3 | -8.7 | 1413 | 0-2 | -7.0 |
| 136 | UTEP Miners | Mountain West | 1-8 | — | -19.9 | 1060 | -53 | 14.1 | 34.3 | -10.7 | -9.2 | 1397 | 0-1 | -11.4 |
| 137 | Sacramento State Hornets | MAC | 2-9 | — | -20.1 | 1099 | +101 | 16.1 | 29.2 | -12.7 | -7.3 | 1371 | 0-1 | -3.0 |
| 138 | Sam Houston Bearkats | Conference USA | 1-8 | — | -20.1 | 1005 | -66 | 17.6 | 27.6 | -12.8 | -7.3 | 1357 | 0-3 | -8.0 |
| Conference | Teams | Average rating | v other FBS | v FCS | Pts a game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 16 | 1644 | 28-2 | 10-0 | 30.1 |
| FBS Independents | 2 | 1634 | 11-6 | 1-0 | 36.1 |
| Big Ten | 18 | 1599 | 31-11 | 12-0 | 28.4 |
| Big 12 | 16 | 1572 | 24-8 | 16-0 | 32.1 |
| ACC | 17 | 1543 | 19-13 | 17-0 | 30.5 |
| Pac-12 | 8 | 1463 | 9-16 | 6-1 | 30.1 |
| American | 14 | 1456 | 16-25 | 12-1 | 29.2 |
| Sun Belt | 14 | 1402 | 14-26 | 13-1 | 27.4 |
| Mountain West | 10 | 1360 | 12-17 | 6-2 | 23.2 |
| MAC | 13 | 1340 | 7-29 | 14-1 | 22.9 |
| Conference USA | 10 | 1279 | 6-24 | 10-0 | 25.0 |
FBS v FCS in 2026: 123 games, FBS won 117; FCS wins:
FBS v FBS games only. One-score: 8 points or fewer.
| Season | Games | Avg total | Avg margin | One-score | 3 or fewer | 21+ | Overtime | Home won | Home margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 776 | 54.4 | 15.6 | 41% | 19.7% | 30.7% | 5% | 58.5% | +4.2 |
| 2023 | 792 | 53.3 | 16.2 | 37.2% | 16.8% | 32.1% | 4.4% | 58.4% | +4.2 |
| 2024 | 798 | 53.7 | 16.1 | 38.8% | 16% | 33.3% | 4.6% | 59.3% | +5.3 |
| 2025 | 808 | 52.3 | 16.4 | 37.1% | 17.8% | 33.3% | 5.4% | 59.5% | +5.1 |
| 2026 | 568 | 52.4 | 16.1 | 39.8% | 17.8% | 33.3% | 4.4% | 61.1% | +5.7 |
| Season | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 7.0 |
| 2023 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 6.8 |
| 2024 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 7.1 |
| 2025 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
| 2026 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 6.9 |
| Total points | Games |
|---|---|
| 0–6 | 1 |
| 7–13 | 9 |
| 14–20 | 44 |
| 21–27 | 153 |
| 28–34 | 297 |
| 35–41 | 491 |
| 42–48 | 556 |
| 49–55 | 600 |
| 56–62 | 535 |
| 63–69 | 436 |
| 70–76 | 282 |
| 77–83 | 169 |
| 84–90 | 95 |
| 91–97 | 39 |
| 98–104 | 23 |
| 105–111 | 8 |
| 112–118 | 1 |
| 119–125 | 2 |
| 140–146 | 1 |
Every setting is chosen on 2024 and 2025 (1,853 games; the two seasons before only warm the ratings up), and the forecast is whichever model has the lower Brier there: Points model (offense v defense) (0.1673 against 0.1719). 2026 never chooses anything; it only scores. Every forecast uses only games played before it.
| Model | Tune: 2024-2025 (1,853) | Held out: 2026 (691) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner right | Brier | Margin miss | v the forecast | Winner right | Brier | Margin miss | v the forecast | |
| Points model (offense v defense) the forecast | 74.4% | 0.1673 | 13.0 | 75.4% | 0.1625 | 13.8 | ||
| Margin-aware Elo | 73.4% | 0.1719 | 13.5 | z 2.60, worse (proven) | 74% | 0.1703 | 14.1 | z 2.91, worse (proven) |
| Elo on wins only | 71% | 0.1804 | 13.9 | z 6.76, worse (proven) | 74.5% | 0.1718 | 14.2 | z 3.40, worse (proven) |
| Home team always wins | 63.8% | 0.2300 | 17.5 | z 15.99, worse (proven) | 67% | 0.2214 | 18.5 | z 8.97, worse (proven) |
| Better AP rank wins (else home) | 68.1% | — | — | 70.3% | — | — | ||
"v the forecast": the paired Brier difference against the forecast on the same games; positive z = worse than the forecast.
Points: total miss 13.1 pts a game in 2026 (the league average so far misses by 13.4).
| Stated | Games | Average stated | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–60% | 144 | 54.7% | 54.2% |
| 60%–70% | 141 | 65.1% | 63.1% |
| 70%–80% | 146 | 75.1% | 80.8% |
| 80%–90% | 128 | 85% | 85.9% |
| 90%–100% | 132 | 95.4% | 95.5% |
Settings: K 40, home edge 55 rating points, 33% back to the start each summer, FCS teams start 450 below; chance calibration 1, 17.0 rating points per point of margin. Points model: 0.1 of each miss, 20% back each summer, 4 pts home edge. Home teams won 64.6% of non-neutral games in the tune seasons.
Sources: ESPN college-football scoreboards (public, keyless; FBS games and their FCS opponents) · DraftKings lines as ESPN shows them (read-only benchmark, never an order)