Tennis

The live ledger (graded picks, never re-graded) and the model's own learning on 8154 held-back matches.

2033graded picks

54.2%win rate (1102-931)

72.4%60%+ win rate (223-85)

63.6%backtest accuracy

K 32rating speed (candidate not promoted)

315voided (lineup changed)

Calibration: stated conviction vs live hit rate

Backtest bins

Edges (95% interval)

Ladder · top 20

Band	Picks	Stated	Hit
50%–60%	1652	51.6%	50.2%
60%–70%	270	64.1%	67%
70%–80%	88	73.8%	83%
80%–100%	23	84%	78.3%

Edge	n	Rate	Interval	Verdict
favourite	6431	59.1%	57.9%–60.3%	advantage
rest	3689	51.5%	49.9%–53.1%	no edge
streak	974	46%	42.9%–49.1%	disadvantage

#	Player	Rating	W-L	Form
1	Jannik Sinner atp	2271	173-16	LWWWWWWW
2	Carlos Alcaraz atp	2192	161-27	WWWWWWWW
3	Aryna Sabalenka wta	2117	169-38	WWLWLLWL
4	Elena Rybakina wta	2109	149-47	WLWWWWWL
5	Iga Swiatek wta	2084	153-39	WWWLWWWL
6	Coco Gauff wta	2081	144-48	WWLWWLWL
7	Jessica Pegula wta	2060	139-52	WWWWLLLW
8	Mirra Andreeva wta	2041	128-48	WWWWWLWW
9	Alexander Zverev atp	2027	179-58	WWLWWWLL
10	Linda Noskova wta	2000	104-57	WWLWWLWW
11	Novak Djokovic atp	1997	96-30	WWWLWLWL
12	Elina Svitolina wta	1990	111-49	WWLWWLLW
13	Karolina Muchova wta	1984	86-37	WWWLWLLL
14	Amanda Anisimova wta	1980	93-45	LWWWLWWL
15	Victoria Mboko wta	1976	54-22	WWWLWWLL
16	Madison Keys wta	1965	97-42	LWWWLWWL
17	Zheng Qinwen wta	1963	93-43	LWWWWWWW
18	Naomi Osaka wta	1962	87-47	WWLWWLWL
19	Marta Kostyuk wta	1957	97-54	WLWLLLLL
20	Diana Shnaider wta	1953	123-70	WWWLWWWW